Krieg's utterly rediculous theory on the start of beta. - Page 2

**Malorn** · 2012-03-15, 12:57 AM

Also, the theme-weeks are every other week.

So we'll get the next one at the end of this month, then two more in April.

If they stick to the rate that puts the last class theme week in mid-May.

I suspect MAX will be the last theme week, but they might delay it if they're holding onto them for marketing purposes.

Skitrel · 2012-03-15, 02:33 AM

Here's a more realistic theory: May 20th. Planetside 1 launch date anniversary.

**Malorn** · 2012-03-15, 02:40 AM

That fits with the conclusion of the class week themes.

Full of Fail · 2012-03-15, 06:31 AM

I'd suspect the devs have a specific list of tasks to finish before it can go to beta status, which means they can estimate the time it'll take until that's done. But that will only be an estimate, and it could always get delayed by unexpected bugs, etc. In the meantime, they just release little bits of content every week to keep the fans interested until beta starts, and even after that they'll still probably release bits of content for the people who aren't in the beta. So I'm not sure how much you can read into it by what classes they're featuring each week.

megamold · 2012-03-15, 07:21 AM

i had the same idea of counting the weeks to geuss at beta, that got shot down pretty damn fast

Soliex · 2012-03-15, 07:36 AM

You would think with the open communication between the development team and the community there would be some talk about the beta.

I think everyone here wants to get their hands on the game, but I also know the development team doesnt want us to hold them to anything. But something simple such as we have blank and blank still yet to work on before we even think about the beta.

Having PC Gamer send out a magazine with beta codes inside it would mislead some people if its more than 1-2 months out.

Kriegson · 2012-03-15, 09:24 AM

Originally Posted by Soliex

Having PC Gamer send out a magazine with beta codes inside it would mislead some people if its more than 1-2 months out.

If beta is in may, the magazine being the April issue would wouldn't put it that far out. I think the calculated nature of expanding their potential beta recruits is a more reliable indicator than any intentions against misleading people.

@Malorn
Every other week eh? ty, I'll edit the main post.

Coreldan · 2012-03-15, 09:35 AM

Didn't Higby just say a week or two back that beta invites would happen within 2 months?

WiteBeam · 2012-03-15, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by Coreldan

Didn't Higby just say a week or two back that beta invites would happen within 2 months?

Yea. Within the next few months they will start inviting people in.

Bonius · 2012-03-15, 09:39 AM

Here's my theory, based upon personal experience from testing environments along with what I do for a living.

As people have said before me, May 20th would be a realistic date for the start of public beta since this date is already in every fan-boys calendar and in itself is already a self-marketing tool.

However.

Blizzard just announced the release date of Diablo 3 to be may 15th. Depending on how agile the development team back at SOE HQ is, we will probably see either a pushed or delayed release, seeing as all the gaming news will be focused on the D3 release. The risk of PS2 beta news being drowned in D3 fanboyism would render the whole marketing ploy that they've been building up over the past months completely useless.

I'm expecting the PS2 public beta to be available in the last week of May (the closed beta is already rolling, as per my earlier theories). This would ensure atleast some coverage of PS2 would make it to the headlines of the gaming magazines.

The beta cycle for PS2 will be a short one, I would say two months at the most. So putting the public beta at the end of May, we will see a release date somewhere in late August/early September. Again this is depending on if they choose to change their marketing strategy, wich at this point would mean alot more work (and cost) for the departments involved - something that SOE is not known to cope well with.

TL;DR version:

Closed beta: Already underway
Public beta: Last week in May / first week in June
Release date: Last week in August / first week in September (Public beta +2 months)

Coreldan · 2012-03-15, 09:46 AM

But the closed beta isn't really underway. Well, I guess that depends on definition. In GDC they were still referring to alpha, at best I'd say they are at friends and family beta, which IMO isnt really closed beta yet.

Do you see public beta as the usual open beta?

Bonius · 2012-03-15, 09:53 AM

Originally Posted by Coreldan

But the closed beta isn't really underway. Well, I guess that depends on definition. In GDC they were still referring to alpha, at best I'd say they are at friends and family beta, which IMO isnt really closed beta yet.

Do you see public beta as the usual open beta?

As I stated in my earlier theories, all the footage we've seen has been from an alpha client, wich most probably is a toned down/earlier version of their development client wich is in beta-phase.

The closed beta I'm refering to is the one that does the functional testing, aka friends and family, along with internal/external resources.

What I call public beta is the one they're handing out keys to, wich will handle non-functional testing (stress testing and the like).

There will be no open beta, aka "sign-up-and-play". If we do see one, it will be in the last two weeks before release.

Eerie · 2012-03-15, 10:10 AM

They're probably gearing up for Beta but still well within their Alpha. It sounds like they are not be doing a FnF(Friends and Family) Alpha and going to roll that into early Beta.

Overview of goals during phases:

Alpha:
- Get world stood up consistently (new engine.. probably for both backend and frontend? sounds rough)
- First passes on real game play (yay)
- Get patching solved (While SOE has a patching solution already, they still need to wrangle their client)
- Prove that you can service an external community by servicing an internal one (feedback tools, community structures/etc, invite tools/etc)

Beta:
- Get world stood up externally (harder than it sounds)
- Iron out gameplay (yay)
- Polish x9999
- zOmg fiars everywhere (put them out)

UnknownDT · 2012-03-15, 10:23 AM

People need to stop saying it's in Closed Beta... They have constantly said they are still in 'Alpha'......

My guess from September was March that closed beta would start... that guess is looking less likely every day, but I still have hope. If it's in April I guess I'll be fine with that, but I hope it's not anytime after that...

PoisonTaco · 2012-03-15, 10:33 AM

It'll start in April unless the folks at SOE have mastered Valve Time.