Argentina is planning on nationalising YPF, which is currently own for 56% by Repsol, a Spanish oil company. They plan to simply annex 51% of the Repsol stock by passing a law in parliament. Spain is considering sanctions and other 'appropriate actions'.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/bu...on-of-ypf.html
The reason they do this is because Argentina is apparently highly dependent on foreign energy sources and fuel is becoming increasingly expensive.
Now, in and on itself this is afaic theft, but I don't think it is the only reason and I'm not sure it will end there. Here are two theories.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...il?INTCMP=SRCH
Last month, there were already diplomatic clashes between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands, considering Argentina wants the islands as the surrounding territorial waters may hold unexploited natural resources.
I'm wondering if Argentina is planning another attempt at the Falklands and in that light both wants an oil company to exploit these natural resources for themselves and use the extra income to the benefit of the state budget, while with YPF, they would also annex any oil reserves currently in stock. Which means they would have access to oil in case of a war with the UK over the Falklands and whatever economic sanctions would occur.
Argentina, of course, still has a claim on the territory, even if it has never been part of Argentina, the first settlers were British and the people on the islands wish to remain part of the UK.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...land-islanders
They have also been harassing any ships that do business with the Falklands or make use of Falkland territorial waters (pretending it's illegal). They've done so by a policy of isolation, disallowing the use of any South American ports through an agreement with South American and Caribean nations.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tensio...-falklands-war
In the meantime, prospectors have yet to find oil anywhere near the Falklands. Question is, is there any at all?
The markets however, think the action by the Argentinian government has more to do with something else, that internal economic problems are so big, they are desperately close to defaulting:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/argent...roach-1000-bps
So, my questions to you: How high will tensions rise and what will happen next? Will Argentina risk war with the UK again over the Falklands? Will Argentina default on the financial market? Would the UK be able to handle a war with Argentina at this time, as they lack aircraft carriers they had 29 years ago?
2012-04-17, 02:54 PM
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